A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
